Prediction, Part 1

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Today is election day (finally!) and it's time for predictions. My first prediction (today) will be the election outcome, and the second prediction (soonish) will be what the next president's term will be like.

Back around the 2000 election, I discovered Rasmussen Reports, a polling firm. They have proven themselves to be among the most accurate and serious of the polling companies, with no discernible bias. I tend to discard the noise of the latest NYT/CBS/Whatever poll and just pay attention to Rasmussen.

The popular vote is irrelevant. The only tally that matters is the electoral college, and here's the bottom line: Obama leads 260 to 160, with 118 toss-ups and leaners. It's easy to see that McCain would have to win almost all of the toss-ups to pull off a win. Baring a enormous turnout by Republicans, the Messiah will easily reach the magic 270 needed to win and descend from heaven to show us His Way. I never thought I'd see so many people turn off their brains and follow such a leftist.

So, will Republicans turn out en masse? I can't see it. Sure, conservatives are scared of an Obama presidency and what it might mean for our country, but there isn't a great deal of enthusiasm for McCain. He's a bona fide hero, but he is a mixed-bag politically. I don't think Republicans will be voting for McCain as much as they'll be voting against Obama. That's no way to win an election. Still, I want to thank John McCain for his extensive service to the country he so dearly loves.

I predict Obama takes it by a minimum of 310 to 228. It will be termed a "landslide," and it'll be hard to argue.

When Obama wins, it will confirm once and for all that experience is irrelevant, ideas are irrelevant, military heroism is irrelevant, honesty is irrelevant, consistency is irrelevant. What matters is: youth, slick speaking, physical attractiveness, gobs of money, a willingness to tell people whatever they want to hear, and perhaps most importantly, a press corp that is willing to cover for the candidate when he flip-flops, associates with terrorists, America-haters, and Islamic radicals, and pretends to have mainstream views.

OK, next time, I'll predict what Obama's administration will be like. Here's a hint: he'll serve only one term.