Prediction, Part 2
November 12, 2008 | filed in: Politics
In Prediction, Part 1, I forecast the election
results. I was reasonably close the mark, but it was
an easy prediction.
Before I take on the more difficult job of predicting how the Most Holy Obama's administration will play out, I'll make another easy one. In thoroughly liberal Minnesota, enough votes will be manufactured, discovered, or found in the back seats of cars to steal the senatorial election away from Norm Coleman and give it to Al Franken. So far as I am aware, votes "discovered" in one way or another have favored (surprise!) Al Franken in every single instance. Hmmm, what are the odds of that happening by chance...
I won't get into all the sordid details here (Power Line is doing a good job of reporting it all), but there is little question that fraud is occurring. Coleman's lead has shrunk from 705 votes down to 206, and the recount hasn't even started yet. I will gladly, and hopefully, eat my words, but Coleman doesn't stand a chance against corrupt liberal vote counters. And when it occurs, I don't want to hear another peep from Democrats about Bush supposedly stealing the 2000 election.
Now, regarding Obama the Arrogant, immediately after the election I felt there was a fair chance that the guy would actually do what he said over and over on the campaign trail: be a uniter, lead in a new direction, usher in real "change," whatever that means. In the subsequent days, those hopes are disappearing. Why?
1. He has already appointed Clinton-era folks to his staff, including the hyper-partisan Rahm Emanuel to be his Chief of Staff. Democrat Paul Begala reportedly described him as a "cross between a hemorrhoid and a toothache." This is a uniter? This is post-partisan? This is a new direction?
2. He held a press conference in which he mocked the elderly Nancy Reagan as having held seances in the White House. Classy. Speaks volumes.
3. He contradicts Polish President Lech Kaczynski regarding whether or not, during their conversation, Obama agreed to continue the missle defense project. This is clarity in foreign policy? Or is did he say one thing to Kaczynski and another to the U.S. press?
4. He claimed that he would not meet with Hamas until they renounced terrorism and recognized Israel's right to exist. He lied. Senior Hamas officials announced that they have already talked and met with Obama's people, but were told not to reveal that information until after the election. This is change? This is an honest approach?
5. The co-chair of Obama's transition team said the King would be "ready to rule on Day 1." Rule, huh? Obama the Arrogant, indeed.
6. All this has happened in less than a week after the election.
I believe Obama's campaign was nothing but a show designed to fool the electorate by telling them what they wanted to hear. When you consider his association with unrepentant terrorists like William Ayers, radical America haters like Rev. Wright, and Socialist political parties, it's easy to be alarmed at the prospect of the show stopping and the "ruling" beginning.
So, what will his administration be like?
First, I predict he will continue to fill positions with long-time liberals and staunch Democrats. So much for "change."
Second, he will successfully push through his tax increase/wealth redistribution plan, over the outcries of Republicans. So much for being a unifer and bringing people together.
Third, in spite his plan and not because of it, the economy will strengthen. The media loves to talk about what monumental challenges will face Obama and how tough it will be. They're doing this to lower expectations and to make sure he gets the credit for anything good that happens. In reality, Obama couldn't possibly be more fortunate, and he must be absolutely delighted. Here's why:
1. The credit crisis is slowing fading away. The heavy lifting (for good or bad) has been done. The gears of finance are moving again.
2. Oil prices and other commodity prices have tumbled. Remember how Bush was blamed for high gas prices? Funny how he's not getting the credit now that they have returned to earth. The reality, of course, is that Bush has little to do with the price of oil, although he did help matters when he rescinded the ban on off-shore drilling. The price of oil has always been largely about global demand.
3. The inventory of home listings has dropped substantially as the housing market is poised to rebound. It's just waiting on the rest of the economy now.
4. Iraq is won and is now largely a policing and transition situation. Obama will get to bring the troops home, and he will get the credit for ending the war. Bush won't get the credit for winning it.
5. The dollar is much stronger than it used to be.
6. Inflation is in check.
7. Interest rates are low.
8. By the time he takes office, the worst of the job losses will probably be over, or nearly so.
9. These factors taken together mean that the economy is poised to take off, and will start doing so mid-way through 2009. And Obama will get the credit.
My fourth prediction is that he'll get a solid year of honeymoon, and then the press will take off their bridal gowns and realize that, wow, he really is arrogant. He really does say one thing to one group and something else to another. His actions don't always match his words. He really is a lefty, and not a centrist. He really is a human being and not a god.
Don't get me wrong, they'll still love the guy. After all, he is a lefty like they are, but they will start to sober up and, for the first time, he will have to deal with tough questions from the press.
Fifth, the Republicans will rediscover their conservative roots and Ronald Reagan. They will rally and provide meaningful opposition.
Sixth, for those Americans in the political middle that voted for Obama, the bloom will come off the rose around 2010-2011. It will sink in that he is a typical lefty politician and his approval rating will fall below 50%.
Seventh, the midterm elections in 2010 will see modest Republican gains in the House and Senate. Modest because unless Obama screws up completely, the economy will be fairly strong.
Eighth, Joe Biden will continue to be a gaffe machine, and the press will stop covering for him once the late-night comedians start carving him up.
Ninth, I sincerely hope I am wrong about this, but I think Bush's incredibly strong streak of 2,688 days without a terrorist attack on U.S. soil will come to an end. Obama will respond with a lot of words and condemnations, but treat it as a police action, and the terrorists will be emboldened.
Tenth, Iran will attack Israel with a nuclear weapon, unless Israel preemptively attacks Iranian facilities. Either way, Obama will respond will a lot of words and condemnations, but little else.
Eleventh, by the time the election in 2012 rolls around, Obama's tax hikes and increases in regulations (carbon taxes, etc.) will start to affect the economy. There will have been some kind of scandal or corruption. Americans will be concerned about radical Islam and terrorism again. The bloom will be off the Obama rose.
The country will be tired of liberalism by 2012, just as they were tired of the feckless Jimmy Carter. The country will be tired of buffoons like Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. They will ready to undo the mistake of 2008.
The Republicans, having learned a lesson about what qualities it takes in win a presidential election these days, will find a youthful, attractive, energetic, smooth-talking candidate that can articulate what conservatism is all about. If they don't, if they turned to some old GOP fixture, they'll lose. But if they can find an appealing candidate, they'll win.
Finally, let me say that none the predications represents my wishes (other than GOP gains). I sincerely hope that Obama proves to be a uniter and a centrist. I want America to prosper and enjoy safety and freedom, no matter who gets the credit. If he leads effectively and America benefits, I'll be delighted and admit I was wrong.
We'll see.
Before I take on the more difficult job of predicting how the Most Holy Obama's administration will play out, I'll make another easy one. In thoroughly liberal Minnesota, enough votes will be manufactured, discovered, or found in the back seats of cars to steal the senatorial election away from Norm Coleman and give it to Al Franken. So far as I am aware, votes "discovered" in one way or another have favored (surprise!) Al Franken in every single instance. Hmmm, what are the odds of that happening by chance...
I won't get into all the sordid details here (Power Line is doing a good job of reporting it all), but there is little question that fraud is occurring. Coleman's lead has shrunk from 705 votes down to 206, and the recount hasn't even started yet. I will gladly, and hopefully, eat my words, but Coleman doesn't stand a chance against corrupt liberal vote counters. And when it occurs, I don't want to hear another peep from Democrats about Bush supposedly stealing the 2000 election.
Now, regarding Obama the Arrogant, immediately after the election I felt there was a fair chance that the guy would actually do what he said over and over on the campaign trail: be a uniter, lead in a new direction, usher in real "change," whatever that means. In the subsequent days, those hopes are disappearing. Why?
1. He has already appointed Clinton-era folks to his staff, including the hyper-partisan Rahm Emanuel to be his Chief of Staff. Democrat Paul Begala reportedly described him as a "cross between a hemorrhoid and a toothache." This is a uniter? This is post-partisan? This is a new direction?
2. He held a press conference in which he mocked the elderly Nancy Reagan as having held seances in the White House. Classy. Speaks volumes.
3. He contradicts Polish President Lech Kaczynski regarding whether or not, during their conversation, Obama agreed to continue the missle defense project. This is clarity in foreign policy? Or is did he say one thing to Kaczynski and another to the U.S. press?
4. He claimed that he would not meet with Hamas until they renounced terrorism and recognized Israel's right to exist. He lied. Senior Hamas officials announced that they have already talked and met with Obama's people, but were told not to reveal that information until after the election. This is change? This is an honest approach?
5. The co-chair of Obama's transition team said the King would be "ready to rule on Day 1." Rule, huh? Obama the Arrogant, indeed.
6. All this has happened in less than a week after the election.
I believe Obama's campaign was nothing but a show designed to fool the electorate by telling them what they wanted to hear. When you consider his association with unrepentant terrorists like William Ayers, radical America haters like Rev. Wright, and Socialist political parties, it's easy to be alarmed at the prospect of the show stopping and the "ruling" beginning.
So, what will his administration be like?
First, I predict he will continue to fill positions with long-time liberals and staunch Democrats. So much for "change."
Second, he will successfully push through his tax increase/wealth redistribution plan, over the outcries of Republicans. So much for being a unifer and bringing people together.
Third, in spite his plan and not because of it, the economy will strengthen. The media loves to talk about what monumental challenges will face Obama and how tough it will be. They're doing this to lower expectations and to make sure he gets the credit for anything good that happens. In reality, Obama couldn't possibly be more fortunate, and he must be absolutely delighted. Here's why:
1. The credit crisis is slowing fading away. The heavy lifting (for good or bad) has been done. The gears of finance are moving again.
2. Oil prices and other commodity prices have tumbled. Remember how Bush was blamed for high gas prices? Funny how he's not getting the credit now that they have returned to earth. The reality, of course, is that Bush has little to do with the price of oil, although he did help matters when he rescinded the ban on off-shore drilling. The price of oil has always been largely about global demand.
3. The inventory of home listings has dropped substantially as the housing market is poised to rebound. It's just waiting on the rest of the economy now.
4. Iraq is won and is now largely a policing and transition situation. Obama will get to bring the troops home, and he will get the credit for ending the war. Bush won't get the credit for winning it.
5. The dollar is much stronger than it used to be.
6. Inflation is in check.
7. Interest rates are low.
8. By the time he takes office, the worst of the job losses will probably be over, or nearly so.
9. These factors taken together mean that the economy is poised to take off, and will start doing so mid-way through 2009. And Obama will get the credit.
My fourth prediction is that he'll get a solid year of honeymoon, and then the press will take off their bridal gowns and realize that, wow, he really is arrogant. He really does say one thing to one group and something else to another. His actions don't always match his words. He really is a lefty, and not a centrist. He really is a human being and not a god.
Don't get me wrong, they'll still love the guy. After all, he is a lefty like they are, but they will start to sober up and, for the first time, he will have to deal with tough questions from the press.
Fifth, the Republicans will rediscover their conservative roots and Ronald Reagan. They will rally and provide meaningful opposition.
Sixth, for those Americans in the political middle that voted for Obama, the bloom will come off the rose around 2010-2011. It will sink in that he is a typical lefty politician and his approval rating will fall below 50%.
Seventh, the midterm elections in 2010 will see modest Republican gains in the House and Senate. Modest because unless Obama screws up completely, the economy will be fairly strong.
Eighth, Joe Biden will continue to be a gaffe machine, and the press will stop covering for him once the late-night comedians start carving him up.
Ninth, I sincerely hope I am wrong about this, but I think Bush's incredibly strong streak of 2,688 days without a terrorist attack on U.S. soil will come to an end. Obama will respond with a lot of words and condemnations, but treat it as a police action, and the terrorists will be emboldened.
Tenth, Iran will attack Israel with a nuclear weapon, unless Israel preemptively attacks Iranian facilities. Either way, Obama will respond will a lot of words and condemnations, but little else.
Eleventh, by the time the election in 2012 rolls around, Obama's tax hikes and increases in regulations (carbon taxes, etc.) will start to affect the economy. There will have been some kind of scandal or corruption. Americans will be concerned about radical Islam and terrorism again. The bloom will be off the Obama rose.
The country will be tired of liberalism by 2012, just as they were tired of the feckless Jimmy Carter. The country will be tired of buffoons like Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. They will ready to undo the mistake of 2008.
The Republicans, having learned a lesson about what qualities it takes in win a presidential election these days, will find a youthful, attractive, energetic, smooth-talking candidate that can articulate what conservatism is all about. If they don't, if they turned to some old GOP fixture, they'll lose. But if they can find an appealing candidate, they'll win.
Finally, let me say that none the predications represents my wishes (other than GOP gains). I sincerely hope that Obama proves to be a uniter and a centrist. I want America to prosper and enjoy safety and freedom, no matter who gets the credit. If he leads effectively and America benefits, I'll be delighted and admit I was wrong.
We'll see.

